African CEOs on Cross-Border Trade: The 2026 PAFTRAC Survey

What the PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey is

The PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey is a yearly poll of senior African business executives, run by the Pan-African Private Sector Trade and Investment Committee (PAFTRAC), a body that brings together African private-sector leaders and public policymakers and works on trade expansion and investment aligned with the African Union's Agenda 2063, according to insights.african.business.

African Business reports the survey is in its sixth year and has grown from 400 respondents in 2021 to over 2,500 in 2026. The publisher calls it the most robust barometer of African executive sentiment on trade available. The preliminary results were presented at the WTO Public Forum in Geneva on 7 October 2026, the first public unveiling of the findings. The full 2026 report is scheduled for publication in October 2026, with a launch webinar in mid-November hosted by African Business.

African CEOs on cross-border trade: 81.3% expect growth

Of the senior executives surveyed, 81.3% expect their cross-border activity to expand over the next twelve months, African Business reports. That is the headline number: roughly eight in ten of the executives covered expect to do more business across African borders, not less.

More than 60% of the commercial enterprises covered now actively trade or plan to trade across African borders, according to insights.african.business. The same report says these companies are looking within the continent ahead of historic corridors in Europe and Asia. African Business adds that intra-African commerce has overtaken China, Europe and the United States as executives' principal target destination.

For a Nigerian exporter, the practical reading is that the buyers and partners the survey covers are looking at African markets first. The question is whether the systems for moving goods and money across those borders can keep up.

Intra-African trade is still stuck at 15-18% of exports

Intra-African merchandise trade remains at 15-18% of total exports, African Business reports, a figure it describes as showing negligible change despite the operational rollout of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA is the continent-wide agreement meant to lower barriers to trade between African countries.

The 15-18% figure is the clearest sign in the survey that optimism about cross-border trade has not yet shown up in measured trade volumes. African Business says the findings point to a continent where the appetite for regional integration is outpacing the systems designed to enable it. The report from insights.african.business puts it another way: private sector ambition is outpacing the regulatory machinery.

The $31 billion 'prejudice premium' and what it means

African sovereign and institutional borrowers consistently attract risk ratings from Western credit agencies that, according to IFC analysis, impose an estimated excess premium of $31 billion annually, African Business reports. The IFC is the International Finance Corporation, part of the World Bank Group.

The $31 billion is an IFC estimate of an excess premium, not a measured cost, and African Business attributes it to IFC analysis. Professor Patrick Utomi, Chairperson of PAFTRAC, described the issue this way:

The core issue is risk perception, or what many of us call a prejudice premium

Utomi added:

Outdated global rules and subjective rating methodologies are imposing a direct tax on African trade

Both quotes come from African Business. The claim that rating methodologies impose a tax on African trade is PAFTRAC's position, attributed to its chairperson. The $31 billion figure is the IFC's estimate of the premium, and the two are not the same thing: one is a measurement estimate, the other is an argument about what it means.

Trade finance: 57% say access is difficult

Of the executives surveyed, 57% described access to trade finance for cross-border transactions as difficult or very difficult, according to African Business. The report from insights.african.business gives the same figure for commercial operators. Trade finance covers the loans, guarantees and payment tools that let a business buy goods in one country and sell them in another without carrying the full cost itself.

The IFC estimates Africa's SME financing gap at more than $331 billion, African Business reports. The report from insights.african.business describes this structural liquidity shortage as starving mid-tier enterprises. For a Nigerian small or medium business, the two figures together describe the funding gap the surveyed operators say they face when trading across borders.

The AfCFTA awareness gap: PAPSS, E-Tariff Book and more

Of the respondents, 70.2% report a tangible operational impact from AfCFTA-related reforms, African Business reports. The insights.african.business report says over 70% of companies report tangible benefits from regional integration. So most companies say the agreement is already doing something for them.

Yet more than half of respondents are unfamiliar with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), African Business reports. PAPSS is a framework designed to bypass the friction of dollar clearing in intra-African transactions. In plain terms, it is meant to let a Nigerian buyer pay a Kenyan seller in local currencies rather than routing the payment through US dollars.

Knowledge of the E-Tariff Book, the African Trade Observatory and the AfCFTA's non-tariff barrier reporting tools is similarly limited, according to African Business. The insights.african.business report says awareness of other AfCFTA operational mechanisms remains similarly depressed. African Business describes this as a sharp divide between commercial goodwill and operational reality: companies report benefits, yet many do not know the tools meant to deliver them.

Other barriers the report names

Tariff structures, expensive maritime freight, currency volatility and inefficient border posts continue to act as an internal tariff on African manufacturing and supply chains, according to insights.african.business. The same report names arbitrary sovereign credit margins and custom delays among the barriers.

Those are the costs a Nigerian trader meets on the ground: port charges, paperwork at the border, and exchange-rate swings that change the price of a shipment between order and delivery. The full report will provide analysis of trade barriers, AfCFTA implementation progress and financing constraints, with private-sector policy recommendations drawn from over 2,500 executives, African Business reports.

What to watch next

The full 2026 PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey Report is scheduled for publication in October 2026, African Business reports. A launch webinar is scheduled for mid-November, hosted by African Business and featuring private sector executives and key trade facilitators, according to insights.african.business. The preliminary findings presentation is being shared with people who register, ahead of the full report.

For a Nigerian business that trades across borders, three things are worth tracking. First, whether the full report shows the 15-18% intra-African trade share moving. Second, whether PAPSS awareness improves, since the payment system is one of the few tools that directly addresses the dollar-clearing friction the survey names. Third, whether the policy recommendations in the full report are taken up, given that the survey covers over 2,500 executives and is aligned with Agenda 2063.

Readers who want the underlying numbers rather than the summary can register for the full report and the webinar through insights.african.business. For context on how data gaps affect investment decisions in Africa, see our post on Africa's data gap becoming an investment gap. For how Nigerian consumers answer questions about the goods they buy, see what consumers say about counterfeit goods.